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The powers that be in America, led by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke, have been putting the foot down on the interest rate brake lately in order to prevent the world’s largest economy from sliding into recession. Last week the American Fed dropped borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percent as the world’s stock markets showed signs of trouble.
But will same happen in the UK?
The problems facing the Fed and the Bank of England are complex and difficult, but still decidedly different. In the UK, the Bank of England has to balance the interests of the broader economy with its main remit, which is addressing and fighting inflation.
The threat of rising prices may explain why Mervyn King and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee have been far more cautious than the Americans. Having said that though, the pressure is certainly on for a cut in interest rates, and King himself in a recent speech grudgingly admitted rates will almost certainly eventually have to come down.
So what about the immediate future?…
Well, in two words…rather uncertain. The Fed could chop another half a point off the headline rate of interest later today in order to respark the lagging housing market and encourage increased consumer spending.
Some economic observers hold the opinion that the recent series of deep cuts might not have been necessary if the Fed had held back rather than upping the rates for 17 consecutive months from the start of 2005. What the Bank of England will do for the rest of the year is, at the moment, anyone’s guess, but a February cut is almost certainly expected.
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